Legislative: Macron confronted the escalating risks of Melenchon

France led by one of the vital excessive leftists in Europe, behind a revolutionary chief with populist rhetoric and European software program, whose financial program will inevitably plunge the nation right into a droop: that is the state of affairs that can prevail the day after the second spherical of legislative elections, Sunday 19 June, if it succeeds Jean-Luc Melenchon at his guess and was “elected” in Matignon after profitable a majority of the seats within the Nationwide Meeting. On the age of 70, Tribune Insomes was defeated 3 times in presidential elections (2012, 2017, 2022), he tried his hand at a ultimate – and unlikely – gamble: to overturn the presidential election consequence to pressure coexistence on Emmanuel Macron. He skillfully stunned his opponents by inviting the French to “elect him as prime minister” with out ready for the end result of the second spherical. A tactical transfer that allowed him to proceed occupying the media house whereas protecting himself intact, which noticed him obtain 22% of the vote in the course of the first spherical.

The principle attraction of the marketing campaign

On the identical time, he achieved the inconceivable by uniting the Left behind him, with the Nupes (New Populist Ecological and Social Union), a political UFO bringing collectively communists, socialists, ecologists and rebellious individuals round a program and authorities contract that, twenty years after Lionel Jospin, would see the return of the “plural left” to Matignon. At first mocked by his need to skip the second spherical of the presidential election, after which belittled by the bulk, which for a very long time had been content material with a determine stuffed with ostentation and braveness, the gluttonous deputy from Marseille quenched the grins of Macron. . In a stagnant marketing campaign, as presidential forces let themselves numb from the prospect of a simple victory, he woke up the ambitions of a left pissed off with the end result of the presidential election. In his fashion, along with his surprising formulation and nice hits, he turned the primary attraction of the marketing campaign, with a easy however efficient slogan: “Mélenchon à Matignon”.

And now, it instantly threatens the ambitions of Macron within the Nationwide Meeting. For the primary time, a Harris Interactive ballot (see under) assumes that Emmanuel Macron doesn’t have a transparent majority on the night of June 19, with a base of deputies starting from 285 to 335 seats (an absolute majority is about at 289 deputies.). With 120 to 184 deputies, Jean-Luc Melenchon remains to be removed from Matignon, however he can impose on the President of the Republic a majority for the Palais Bourbon. Remarkable since Michel Rocard in 1988… The Head of State would then have to barter with LR to rule.

Does he hope for one of the best and pressure the top of state to coexist? In his dream of conquest, Jean-Luc Melenchon can depend on a formidable weapon: the Nubians. By maximizing the possibilities of qualifying for the second spherical, the Left Alliance proved itself within the elections for French representatives overseas on Sunday 5 June, by qualifying for the second spherical in 10 out of 11 constituencies. It shortly unfold among the many younger, practically 50% of whom needed to vote for the Left Union, and in Audio-visual media, the place Newbies has a monopoly on broadcasting. “Jean-Luc Melenchon is laying aside the century,” cried one of many Macron executives, when the particular person in query himself couldn’t assist however acknowledge him: “It has begun to odor good.”

Silly Radical

After all, there’s nonetheless an electoral lock: in poorly mobilized elections, the distinction in turnout is in favor of the macro homeowners, whose target market – the pensioners, the rich courses … – will go to the polls extra simply. Likewise, the impact of the alliance between the 2 rounds of legislative elections might run out, after the left-wing candidates stuffed up within the first spherical, and they might solely be capable of benefit from the poor vote reserve within the second spherical. “It’s not inconceivable that in sure districts they are going to get 30% within the first spherical and 30% within the second spherical,” slips of a former Socialist Celebration govt who makes a speciality of electoral mapping.

Above all, by following the paths of extremism, Jean-Luc Mélenchon minimize himself off from a big a part of the nation. “It is nonetheless a frustration for a lot of French individuals,” mentioned Stuart Chau, political analyst at ViaVoice. Even when his picture traits improved with the presidential election, the previous socialist senator stays a deeply divisive determine. From 2010 and his quarrel with a scholar journalist “little minds” to analysis the 12 months 2018 and “La République, c’est moi” or his remarks a couple of doable assault within the final week of the presidential election, the LFI deputy revealed an offended, milk-soup nature, even paranoid. Like his political composition, an invasive and vertical motion, with out inner democracy, wherein the cult of the chief reaches its climax.

The alliance with the opposite powers on the left was to permit her to erase this picture by refocusing it. However it was completed round melanistic tendencies within the purest of the rebellious radical. The financial part, which offers $250 billion in new spending, is unsustainable and would plunge France right into a sure recession. “No remaining authorities will be capable of recuperate from taking part in such an experiment, if it ever sees the sunshine,” wrote former financial advisor to François Mitterrand, Guillaume Henezzo, in a report for Terra Nova. Likewise, after arduous negotiations, the formations taking part within the Nupes accepted the precept of non-adherence, a minimum of briefly, to European treaties, so as to have the ability to implement their programme, in full distinction to the European fibers of the ecologists or the Mitrandian heritage of the Socialist Celebration. Many developments distract the left from the tradition of governance.

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The hindrances are so fragile that many count on their life expectancy to be restricted. Some are even betting that when the elections are over, the events will resume their rights. Like the previous First Secretary of the Socialist Celebration, Jean-Christophe Cambadelis, who predicted the explosion of this entrance unit “in 2024”, with the European elections. He expects: “It won’t be acceptable.” What’s going to then be left of the Nupes? 100 insurgent deputies ought to represent a very powerful political group throughout the new meeting. Not an insignificant ingredient, because the latter demonstrated over the past legislature, the school of agitprop. However above all, as a result of it’s going to open to them the presidency of the Finance Committee, historically reserved for the primary opposition group. As for Jean-Luc Melenchon, he was content material that he had lastly succeeded in imposing his political line. The previous Socialist Minot, whom François Hollande by no means did not humiliate in nationwide workplace, lastly gained his council.

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